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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 56

Jacksonville Jaguars 9 – Carolina Panthers 17

What Actually Happened

(6:42) 19-B.Anger punts 37 yards to CAR 19, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.81 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 56, worth -2.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model