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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 13 at the 58

Carolina Panthers 17 – Jacksonville Jaguars 9

What Actually Happened

(2:54) 8-B.Nortman punts 56 yards to JAX 2, Center-44-J.Jansen. 13-R.Greene to JAX 11 for 9 yards (97-M.Addison).

The Three Options

GO -1.38 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.90 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 58, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 18, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model