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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 11 at the 90

Jacksonville Jaguars 9 – Carolina Panthers 17

What Actually Happened

(1:14) 19-B.Anger punts 45 yards to CAR 45, Center-46-C.Tinker. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 45 for no gain (35-D.McCray).

The Three Options

GO -3.15 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.87 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 90, worth -5.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 47, worth -2.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model