4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 29

Carolina Panthers 17 – Jacksonville Jaguars 9

What Actually Happened

(2:46) (Field Goal formation) 9-G.Gano 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +1.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +3.26 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 29, worth -1.11 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
What Happened
  • 75% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 39, worth -1.41 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP