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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 16 at the 25

Carolina Panthers 20 – Jacksonville Jaguars 9

What Actually Happened

(1:14) (Field Goal formation) 9-G.Gano 43 yard field goal is BLOCKED (91-C.Clemons), Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +2.64 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25, worth -0.70 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 35, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model