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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 68

Jacksonville Jaguars 9 – Carolina Panthers 20

What Actually Happened

(:54) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short left to 81-B.Walters to JAX 45 for 13 yards (56-A.Klein).

The Three Options

GO -0.45 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.04 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 68, worth -1.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 26, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model