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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 74

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(6:45) (Punt formation) 19-B.Anger punts 47 yards to CAR 27, Center-46-C.Tinker. 19-T.Ginn pushed ob at JAX 36 for 37 yards (19-B.Anger).

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.64 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 32, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model