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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 77

Houston Texans 6 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(9:07) 9-S.Lechler punts 48 yards to KC 29, Center-46-J.Weeks. 13-D.Thomas to KC 48 for 19 yards (12-K.Mumphery). (The Punt Hang Time was 4.60 secs.)

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.63 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 77, worth -4.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 34, worth -1.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model