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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
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Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
Sunday 2015-09-13 · 13:00 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread -1.0 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

KC
51.6%
HOU
48.4%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Brian Hoyer (HOU): -0.163 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Alex Smith (KC): +0.030 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

KC 24
–
HOU 23
Projected margin: KC by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

KC

Jeff Allen G Questionable Knee
Eric Fisher T Questionable Ankle
Jason Avant WR Probable Hip
Chris Conley WR Probable Knee
Demetrius Harris TE Probable Foot
Travis Kelce TE Probable Ankle
Joshua Mauga LB Probable Achilles
Rakeem Nunez-Roches DE Probable Ankle
Dontari Poe DT Probable Back
De'Anthony Thomas WR Probable Calf
Albert Wilson WR Probable Shoulder

HOU

Lonnie Ballentine S Out Knee
Arian Foster RB Out Groin
Mike Mohamed LB Out Calf
Xavier Su'a-Filo G Out Calf
Carlos Thompson LB Out Concussion
Duane Brown T Probable Hand
Jadeveon Clowney LB Probable Knee
Christian Covington DT Probable Shoulder
Benardrick McKinney LB Probable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 27
–
HOU 20

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:27 TD KC (10:27) 11-A.Smith pass short middle to 87-T.Kelce for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 6 – HOU 0
  • Q1 04:39 TD KC (4:39) 11-A.Smith pass short left to 87-T.Kelce for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 13 – HOU 0
  • Q1 00:51 TD HOU (:51) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hoyer pass short right to 10-D.Hopkins for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 14 – HOU 6
  • Q2 10:29 FG KC (10:29) 5-C.Santos 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 17 – HOU 6
  • Q2 06:25 FG KC (6:25) 5-C.Santos 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 20 – HOU 6
  • Q2 05:01 TD KC (5:01) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left to 25-J.Charles for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 26 – HOU 6
  • Q2 00:13 FG HOU (:13) 4-R.Bullock 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. KC 27 – HOU 9
  • Q4 04:16 TD HOU (4:16) (Shotgun) 15-R.Mallett pass short right to 10-D.Hopkins for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 27 – HOU 15
  • Q4 01:28 FG HOU (1:28) 4-R.Bullock 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. KC 27 – HOU 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 KC 4th & 8 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 46%

    (11:23) 2-D.Colquitt punts 36 yards to HOU 7, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-30-J.Fleming.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 10 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 36%

    (8:50) 9-S.Lechler punts 30 yards to KC 17, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-46-J.Weeks.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 7 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%

    (10:29) 5-C.Santos 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 7 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (9:07) 9-S.Lechler punts 48 yards to KC 29, Center-46-J.Weeks. 13-D.Thomas to KC 48 for 19 yards (12-K.Mumphery). (The Punt Hang Time was 4.60 secs.)

  • Q2 KC 4th & 8 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 77%

    (6:25) 5-C.Santos 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 9 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (4:10) 9-S.Lechler punts 42 yards to KC 37, Center-46-J.Weeks. 13-D.Thomas ran ob at HOU 47 for 16 yards. (The Punt Hang Time was 3.25 secs.)

  • Q2 KC 4th & 11 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 34%

    (2:38) 2-D.Colquitt punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 9 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 93%

    (:13) 4-R.Bullock 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 3 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (13:46) 9-S.Lechler punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback. (The Punt Hang Time was 5.07 secs.)

  • Q3 KC 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (11:56) 2-D.Colquitt punts 53 yards to HOU 18, Center-41-J.Winchester. 12-K.Mumphery MUFFS catch, and recovers at HOU 18. 12-K.Mumphery ran ob at HOU 18 for no gain. (The Punt Hang Time was 4.75 secs.)

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 8 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (11:01) 9-S.Lechler punts 46 yards to KC 34, Center-46-J.Weeks. 13-D.Thomas to KC 48 for 14 yards (55-B.McKinney).

  • Q3 KC 4th & 7 at the 37
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 62%

    (8:25) 2-D.Colquitt punts 37 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 1 at the 11
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 96%

    (6:09) 28-A.Blue right tackle to KC 11 for no gain (39-H.Abdullah; 96-J.Howard).

  • Q3 KC 4th & 9 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (3:21) 2-D.Colquitt punts 56 yards to HOU 8, Center-41-J.Winchester. 12-K.Mumphery to HOU 11 for 3 yards (35-C.West). (The Punt Hang Time was 4.40 secs.)

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 13 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (15:00) 9-S.Lechler punts 57 yards to KC 14, Center-46-J.Weeks. 13-D.Thomas MUFFS catch, and recovers at KC 14. 13-D.Thomas to KC 29 for 15 yards (21-D.Morris).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 13 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 36%

    (10:04) 2-D.Colquitt punts 36 yards to HOU 11, Center-41-J.Winchester. 12-K.Mumphery to HOU 14 for 3 yards (57-D.Alexander). PENALTY on HOU-35-E.Pleasant, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at HOU 14.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 1 at the 32
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EP
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 73%

    (6:16) 5-C.Santos 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 1 at the 56 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (2:55) 2-D.Colquitt punts 41 yards to HOU 15, Center-41-J.Winchester. 12-K.Mumphery pushed ob at HOU 23 for 8 yards (57-D.Alexander).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 10 at the 29 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 78%

    (1:28) 4-R.Bullock 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.