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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 30

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Houston Texans 6

What Actually Happened

(6:25) 5-C.Santos 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.32 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 30, worth -1.46 EP
KICK +1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 40, worth -2.01 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model