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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 16

Houston Texans 6 – Kansas City Chiefs 27

What Actually Happened

(:13) 4-R.Bullock 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +1.43 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +4.88 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 16, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +2.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26, worth -0.07 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model