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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 57

Houston Texans 9 – Kansas City Chiefs 27

What Actually Happened

(13:46) 9-S.Lechler punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback. (The Punt Hang Time was 5.07 secs.)

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.82 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 57, worth -3.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.68 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 17, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP