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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 71

Kansas City Chiefs 27 – Houston Texans 9

What Actually Happened

(11:56) 2-D.Colquitt punts 53 yards to HOU 18, Center-41-J.Winchester. 12-K.Mumphery MUFFS catch, and recovers at HOU 18. 12-K.Mumphery ran ob at HOU 18 for no gain. (The Punt Hang Time was 4.75 secs.)

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.28 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 71, worth -4.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.53 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 29, worth -1.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EP