Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 80

Houston Texans 9 – Kansas City Chiefs 27

(11:01) 9-S.Lechler punts 46 yards to KC 34, Center-46-J.Weeks. 13-D.Thomas to KC 48 for 14 yards (55-B.McKinney).

The Three Options

GO -2.29 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.23 EP
61% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 80, worth -4.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model