Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 13 at the 47

Kansas City Chiefs 27 – Houston Texans 9

What Actually Happened

(10:04) 2-D.Colquitt punts 36 yards to HOU 11, Center-41-J.Winchester. 12-K.Mumphery to HOU 14 for 3 yards (57-D.Alexander). PENALTY on HOU-35-E.Pleasant, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at HOU 14.

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.40 EP
72% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 47, worth -2.57 EP

KICK -1.03 EP

36% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
64% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model