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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 32

Kansas City Chiefs 27 – Houston Texans 9

What Actually Happened

(6:16) 5-C.Santos 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.46 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 32, worth -1.35 EP
KICK +1.04 EP
What Happened
  • 73% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 42, worth -1.83 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EP