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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 12 at the 67

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(8:57) 5-B.Pinion punts 49 yards to MIN 18, Center-86-K.Nelson. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 18 for no gain (31-L.McCray).

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.47 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 67, worth -3.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 25, worth -1.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model