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Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
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San Francisco 49ers

HC Jim Tomsula
Monday 2015-09-14 · 22:20 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US ☀️ Clear Spread -2.5 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

MIN
46.5%
SF
53.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to MIN: Colin Kaepernick (SF) -0.063 vs Teddy Bridgewater (MIN) -0.002 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

MIN 23
–
SF 24
Projected margin: SF by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

MIN

Chase Ford TE Probable Shoulder
Zach Line RB Probable Knee
MyCole Pruitt TE Probable Ankle
Shamar Stephen DT Probable Knee

SF

Tramaine Brock CB Probable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 3
–
SF 20

Prediction missed by 16 pts on margin, 24 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 00:55 TD SF (:55) (Shotgun) 28-C.Hyde left end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 0 – SF 6
  • Q3 04:37 FG SF (4:37) 9-P.Dawson 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. MIN 0 – SF 10
  • Q4 14:48 FG MIN (14:48) 3-B.Walsh 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. MIN 3 – SF 10
  • Q4 09:44 TD SF (9:44) (Shotgun) 28-C.Hyde right tackle for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 3 – SF 16
  • Q4 06:13 FG SF (6:13) 9-P.Dawson 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. MIN 3 – SF 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SF 4th & 7 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 96%

    (9:30) 9-P.Dawson 28 yard field goal is BLOCKED (34-A.Sendejo), Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion, RECOVERED by MIN-35-M.Sherels at MIN 30. 35-M.Sherels to SF 26 for 44 yards (89-V.McDonald).

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 10 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 82%

    (9:02) 3-B.Walsh 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 6 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 24%

    (5:37) 5-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to MIN 12, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 19 at the 97
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (3:33) 18-J.Locke punts 39 yards to MIN 42, Center-47-K.McDermott. 38-J.Hayne MUFFS catch, touched at MIN 42, RECOVERED by MIN-57-A.Cole at MIN 43. 57-A.Cole to MIN 43 for no gain (38-J.Hayne). 1-yd of loose ball yardage.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 3 at the 31
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 72%

    (1:17) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left to 82-K.Rudolph to SF 29 for 2 yards (41-A.Bethea). SF-29-J.Tartt was injured during the play. His return is Probable. Caught at SF 31. 2-yds YAC

  • Q2 SF 4th & 14 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (14:56) 5-B.Pinion punts 52 yards to MIN 23, Center-86-K.Nelson. 35-M.Sherels pushed ob at MIN 32 for 9 yards (49-B.Miller).

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 18 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (10:31) 18-J.Locke punts 31 yards to SF 23, Center-47-K.McDermott, out of bounds.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 12 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (8:57) 5-B.Pinion punts 49 yards to MIN 18, Center-86-K.Nelson. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 18 for no gain (31-L.McCray).

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 6 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (6:01) 18-J.Locke punts 44 yards to SF 15, Center-47-K.McDermott. 10-B.Ellington for 85 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. Penalty on SF-50-N.Bellore, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined. PENALTY on SF-27-K.Reaser, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 7 yards, enforced at SF 14.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 2 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 22%

    (10:22) 18-J.Locke punts 36 yards to SF 16, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 10-B.Ellington.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 5 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 96%

    (4:37) 9-P.Dawson 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 6 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 90%

    (14:48) 3-B.Walsh 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 1 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.37 EP
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 97%

    (6:13) 9-P.Dawson 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 8 at the 38 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 55%

    (3:04) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater sacked at MIN 48 for -14 yards (59-A.Lynch).