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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 52

Minnesota Vikings 0 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(10:22) 18-J.Locke punts 36 yards to SF 16, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 10-B.Ellington.

The Three Options

GO +0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.75 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 52, worth -2.94 EP
KICK -1.78 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP