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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 10

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(9:30) 9-P.Dawson 28 yard field goal is BLOCKED (34-A.Sendejo), Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion, RECOVERED by MIN-35-M.Sherels at MIN 30. 35-M.Sherels to SF 26 for 44 yards (89-V.McDonald).

The Three Options

GO +2.33 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.34 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 10, worth +0.40 EP
KICK +2.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.58 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.33 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model