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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 51

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(5:37) 5-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to MIN 12, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.18 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 51, worth -2.44 EP
KICK -1.23 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.62 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 14, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model