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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 31

Minnesota Vikings 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(1:17) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left to 82-K.Rudolph to SF 29 for 2 yards (41-A.Bethea). SF-29-J.Tartt was injured during the play. His return is Probable. Caught at SF 31. 2-yds YAC

The Three Options

GO +1.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.04 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.70 EP
KICK +0.71 EP
  • 72% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 41, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model