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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 25

Arizona Cardinals 14 – New Orleans Saints 13

What Actually Happened

(:09) 7-C.Catanzaro 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler.

The Three Options

GO +1.70 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.54 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25, worth -0.45 EP
KICK +2.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.72 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 35, worth -1.34 EP
PUNT +0.53 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model