4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
NO Away

New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
@
ARI Home

Arizona Cardinals

HC Bruce Arians
Sunday 2015-09-13 · 16:05 University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome Spread 2.0 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

NO
49.0%
ARI
51.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Drew Brees (NO): +0.180 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Carson Palmer (ARI): +0.069 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

NO 25
–
ARI 26
Projected margin: ARI by 1 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

NO

Jairus Byrd S Out Knee
Dannell Ellerbe LB Out Toe
Keenan Lewis CB Out Hip
C.J. Spiller RB Out Knee
Davis Tull LB Out Shoulder
Tim Hightower RB Probable Knee

ARI

Mike Iupati G Out Knee
Michael Floyd WR Questionable Hand
Jermaine Gresham TE Questionable Hamstring
Troy Niklas TE Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 19
–
ARI 31

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:56 TD ARI (9:56) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass short right to 12-JO.Brown for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 0 – ARI 6
  • Q1 04:00 FG NO (4:00) 2-Z.Hocker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-7-L.McCown. NO 3 – ARI 7
  • Q2 11:10 TD ARI (11:10) 38-A.Ellington up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI #53 reported as eligible. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. NO 3 – ARI 13
  • Q2 05:23 TD NO (5:23) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 16-B.Coleman for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. NO 9 – ARI 14
  • Q3 12:05 FG NO (12:05) 2-Z.Hocker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-7-L.McCown. NO 13 – ARI 14
  • Q3 00:09 FG ARI (:09) 7-C.Catanzaro 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler. NO 13 – ARI 17
  • Q4 12:29 FG NO (12:29) 2-Z.Hocker 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-7-L.McCown. NO 16 – ARI 17
  • Q4 09:54 TD ARI (9:54) 3-C.Palmer pass deep right to 85-D.Fells for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 16 – ARI 23
  • Q4 06:50 FG NO (6:50) 2-Z.Hocker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-7-L.McCown. NO 19 – ARI 24
  • Q4 01:44 TD ARI (1:44) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass short right to 31-D.Johnson for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 19 – ARI 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 3 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 91%

    (4:00) 2-Z.Hocker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-7-L.McCown.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 5 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (1:53) 2-D.Butler punts 30 yards to NO 32, Center-82-M.Leach, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 4 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 26%

    (14:15) 6-T.Morstead punts 40 yards to ARI 12, Center-47-J.Drescher, fair catch by 14-J.Nelson.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 3 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (3:46) 2-D.Butler punts 46 yards to NO 11, Center-82-M.Leach, fair catch by 23-M.Murphy.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 7 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (1:19) 6-T.Morstead punts 50 yards to ARI 26, Center-47-J.Drescher. 14-J.Nelson to ARI 37 for 11 yards (35-A.Johnson).

  • Q3 NO 4th & 2 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.49 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 98%

    (12:05) 2-Z.Hocker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-7-L.McCown.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (10:33) 2-D.Butler punts 47 yards to NO 28, Center-82-M.Leach. 23-M.Murphy to NO 30 for 2 yards (59-A.Fua).

  • Q3 NO 4th & 10 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (7:13) 6-T.Morstead punts 27 yards to ARI 30, Center-47-J.Drescher, out of bounds.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 4 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 85%

    (:09) 7-C.Catanzaro 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 9 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 82%

    (12:29) 2-Z.Hocker 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-7-L.McCown.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 10 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 94%

    (6:50) 2-Z.Hocker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-7-L.McCown.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 7 at the 38 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.01 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 59%

    (2:20) 2-D.Butler punts 35 yards to NO 3, Center-82-M.Leach, downed by ARI-28-J.Bethel.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 6 at the 93 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (1:58) 6-T.Morstead punts 54 yards to ARI 39, Center-47-J.Drescher. 14-J.Nelson pushed ob at ARI 43 for 4 yards (30-D.Jones).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 14 at the 65 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 29%

    (:31) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass incomplete deep right to 16-B.Coleman. Penalty on NO-73-J.Evans, Offensive Holding, declined.