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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 9 at the 27

New Orleans Saints 13 – Arizona Cardinals 17

What Actually Happened

(12:29) 2-Z.Hocker 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-7-L.McCown.

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.53 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 27, worth -1.37 EP
KICK +1.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 37, worth -2.11 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model