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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 15

New Orleans Saints 16 – Arizona Cardinals 24

What Actually Happened

(6:50) 2-Z.Hocker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-7-L.McCown.

The Three Options

GO +1.00 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.58 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 15, worth -0.78 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25, worth -1.30 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model