Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 93

New Orleans Saints 19 – Arizona Cardinals 24

(1:58) 6-T.Morstead punts 54 yards to ARI 39, Center-47-J.Drescher. 14-J.Nelson pushed ob at ARI 43 for 4 yards (30-D.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -2.39 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth +0.43 EP
55% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 93, worth -4.72 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model