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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 19

New Orleans Saints 0 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(4:00) 2-Z.Hocker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-7-L.McCown.

The Three Options

GO +1.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.69 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 19, worth -0.71 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 29, worth -1.43 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model