Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 7 at the 60

Dallas Cowboys 3 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(13:22) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 54 yards to NYG 6, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 17-D.Harris to NYG 7 for 1 yard (51-K.Wilber). PENALTY on NYG-98-D.Moore, Offensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced at NYG 6.

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.68 EP
62% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 60, worth -3.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model