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NYG Away

New York Giants

HC Tom Coughlin
@
DAL Home

Dallas Cowboys

HC Jason Garrett
Sunday 2015-09-13 · 20:30 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread 7.0 O/U 52.0

Win Probability

NYG
54.0%
DAL
46.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Tony Romo (DAL): -0.079 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • NYG crossing 2 time zone(s)

Predicted Final Score

NYG 24
–
DAL 22
Projected margin: NYG by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

NYG

Jon Beason LB Out Knee
Victor Cruz WR Out Calf
Jonathan Casillas LB Probable Neck
Cullen Jenkins DT Probable Hamstring
Owamagbe Odighizuwa DE Probable Foot

DAL

Dez Bryant WR Probable Hamstring
James Hanna TE Probable Knee
Anthony Hitchens LB Probable Foot
Zack Martin G Probable Neck
Danny McCray S Probable Neck
Jordan Mills T Probable Foot
Tony Romo QB Probable Back
Devin Street WR Probable Ankle
Brandon Weeden QB Probable Concussion
J.J. Wilcox S Probable Neck

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 26
–
DAL 27

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:36 FG DAL (4:36) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. NYG 0 – DAL 3
  • Q1 02:03 FG NYG (2:03) (Field Goal formation) 3-J.Brown 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing. NYG 3 – DAL 3
  • Q2 05:35 FG DAL (5:35) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. NYG 3 – DAL 6
  • Q2 01:12 TD NYG (1:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-T.Romo pass short right to 11-C.Beasley to NYG 42 for 15 yards (38-T.McBride). FUMBLES (38-T.McBride), RECOVERED by NYG-41-D.Rodgers-Cromartie at NYG 43. 41-D.Rodgers-Cromartie for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 9 – DAL 6
  • Q2 00:19 FG NYG (:19) (Field Goal formation) 3-J.Brown 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing. NYG 13 – DAL 6
  • Q3 09:52 FG NYG (9:52) (Field Goal formation) 3-J.Brown 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing. NYG 16 – DAL 6
  • Q3 04:08 TD DAL (4:08) 9-T.Romo pass short middle to 89-G.Escobar for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN [59-D.Kennard]. Pass caught in the back of the endzone. NYG 16 – DAL 12
  • Q4 08:09 TD NYG (8:09) 23-R.Jennings up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 22 – DAL 13
  • Q4 05:11 TD DAL (5:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-T.Romo pass short left to 82-J.Witten for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Pass caught at the goal line on a quick out pattern. NYG 23 – DAL 19
  • Q4 01:37 FG NYG (1:37) (Field Goal formation) 3-J.Brown 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing. NYG 26 – DAL 20
  • Q4 00:13 TD DAL (:13) (Shotgun) 9-T.Romo Aborted. 72-T.Frederick FUMBLES at NYG 16, recovered by DAL-9-T.Romo at NYG 16. 9-T.Romo pass short middle to 82-J.Witten for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 26 – DAL 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 98%

    (4:36) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 8 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 73%

    (2:03) (Field Goal formation) 3-J.Brown 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 7 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (13:22) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 54 yards to NYG 6, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 17-D.Harris to NYG 7 for 1 yard (51-K.Wilber). PENALTY on NYG-98-D.Moore, Offensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced at NYG 6.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 6 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (11:03) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 40 yards to DAL 40, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 11-C.Beasley to DAL 37 for -3 yards (55-J.Thomas).

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 3 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 94%

    (5:35) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 3 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (3:02) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 50 yards to DAL 13, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 12 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 88%

    (:19) (Field Goal formation) 3-J.Brown 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 2 at the 12
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 95%

    (9:52) (Field Goal formation) 3-J.Brown 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.15 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (2:42) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 63 yards to DAL 8, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-28-J.Hosley.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (14:13) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 53 yards to NYG 20, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 17-D.Harris to NYG 23 for 3 yards (23-C.White).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 8 at the 38
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 59%

    (9:54) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 26 yards to DAL 12, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 1 at the 1 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.61 EP
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 98%

    (1:37) (Field Goal formation) 3-J.Brown 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.