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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 80

New York Giants 3 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(11:03) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 40 yards to DAL 40, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 11-C.Beasley to DAL 37 for -3 yards (55-J.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -2.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.24 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 80, worth -4.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.14 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 37, worth -2.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model