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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 14

Dallas Cowboys 3 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(5:35) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +2.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.08 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 14, worth -0.41 EP
KICK +2.03 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.21 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 24, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model