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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 12 at the 22

New York Giants 10 – Dallas Cowboys 6

What Actually Happened

(:19) (Field Goal formation) 3-J.Brown 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

The Three Options

GO +1.09 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +4.67 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 22, worth -0.19 EP
KICK +2.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.81 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 32, worth -0.56 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model