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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 71

New York Giants 16 – Dallas Cowboys 13

What Actually Happened

(2:42) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 63 yards to DAL 8, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-28-J.Hosley.

The Three Options

GO -0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.22 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 71, worth -4.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.46 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 29, worth -1.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.15 EP