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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 73

Dallas Cowboys 13 – New York Giants 16

What Actually Happened

(14:13) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 53 yards to NYG 20, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 17-D.Harris to NYG 23 for 3 yards (23-C.White).

The Three Options

GO -1.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.41 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 73, worth -4.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 31, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model