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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 38

New York Giants 16 – Dallas Cowboys 13

What Actually Happened

(9:54) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 26 yards to DAL 12, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.83 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 38, worth -1.96 EP
KICK +0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 47, worth -2.61 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.56 EP