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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 3

Dallas Cowboys 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(4:36) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +3.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.39 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 3, worth +0.49 EP
KICK +2.40 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.45 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.47 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP