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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 2 at the 7

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(:04) 4-S.Hauschka 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +1.67 EP
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +3.14 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 7, worth +0.05 EP
KICK +2.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.02 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model