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Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
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St. Louis Rams

HC Jeff Fisher
Sunday 2015-09-13 · 13:00 Edward Jones Dome, St. Louis US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

SEA
50.0%
STL
50.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • QB edge to SEA: Nick Foles (LA) -0.045 vs Russell Wilson (SEA) -0.054 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

SEA 22
–
STL 25
Projected margin: STL by 3 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

SEA

Michael Morgan LB Out Hamstring
Tharold Simon CB Questionable Toe
Cooper Helfet TE Probable Knee
Tarvaris Jackson QB Probable Ankle
Marshawn Lynch RB Probable Not Injury Related

STL

Todd Gurley RB Out Knee
Tre Mason RB Questionable Thigh
Daren Bates LB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 31
–
STL 34

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:45 TD SEA (4:45) 6-J.Hekker punts 55 yards to SEA 43, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 16-T.Lockett for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA-34-C.Reynolds was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. SEA 6 – STL 0
  • Q2 15:00 TD LA (15:00) (Shotgun) 11-T.Austin left tackle for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 7 – STL 6
  • Q2 07:34 FG LA (7:34) 4-G.Zuerlein 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. SEA 7 – STL 10
  • Q2 00:04 FG SEA (:04) 4-S.Hauschka 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan. SEA 10 – STL 10
  • Q3 09:46 FG SEA (9:46) 4-S.Hauschka 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan. SEA 13 – STL 10
  • Q3 06:18 TD LA (6:18) 5-N.Foles scrambles right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 13 – STL 16
  • Q3 04:49 TD LA (4:49) 9-J.Ryan punts 57 yards to LA 25, Center-49-C.Gresham. 11-T.Austin for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SEA-58-K.Pierre-Louis, Ineligible Downfield Kick, declined. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was in bounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. SEA 13 – STL 23
  • Q4 12:08 TD SEA (12:08) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 88-J.Graham for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [52-A.Ogletree]. SEA 19 – STL 24
  • Q4 04:50 FG SEA (4:50) 4-S.Hauschka 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan. SEA 24 – STL 24
  • Q4 04:46 TD SEA (4:46) 5-N.Foles sacked at LA 12 for -8 yards (26-C.Williams). FUMBLES (26-C.Williams) [26-C.Williams], RECOVERED by SEA-26-C.Williams at LA 8. 26-C.Williams for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 30 – STL 24
  • Q4 00:59 TD LA (:59) (Shotgun) 5-N.Foles pass deep left to 88-L.Kendricks for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 31 – STL 30
  • Q5 12:10 FG LA (12:10) 4-G.Zuerlein 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. SEA 31 – STL 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 1 at the 31
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 75%

    (10:04) 40-D.Coleman up the middle to LA 29 for 2 yards (99-A.Donald).

  • Q1 LA 4th & 20 at the 98
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (4:45) 6-J.Hekker punts 55 yards to SEA 43, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 16-T.Lockett for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA-34-C.Reynolds was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 11 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 94%

    (7:34) 4-G.Zuerlein 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 16 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 32%

    (3:06) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-49-C.Gresham, Touchback. PENALTY on SEA-40-D.Coleman, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at LA 20.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (1:56) 6-J.Hekker punts 35 yards to SEA 35, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 2 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 97%

    (:04) 4-S.Hauschka 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 1 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.45 EP
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 97%

    (9:46) 4-S.Hauschka 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 12 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (4:49) 9-J.Ryan punts 57 yards to LA 25, Center-49-C.Gresham. 11-T.Austin for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SEA-58-K.Pierre-Louis, Ineligible Downfield Kick, declined. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was in bounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (3:13) 9-J.Ryan punts 61 yards to LA 13, Center-49-C.Gresham. 11-T.Austin MUFFS catch, and recovers at LA 1. 11-T.Austin to LA 11 for 10 yards (83-R.Lockette).

  • Q3 LA 4th & 4 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (1:22) 6-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to SEA 31, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 37 for 6 yards (31-M.Alexander; 97-E.Sims).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 4 at the 17 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 93%

    (4:50) 4-S.Hauschka 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan.