Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 74

Seattle Seahawks 13 – Los Angeles Rams 24

What Actually Happened

(3:13) 9-J.Ryan punts 61 yards to LA 13, Center-49-C.Gresham. 11-T.Austin MUFFS catch, and recovers at LA 1. 11-T.Austin to LA 11 for 10 yards (83-R.Lockette).

The Three Options

GO -1.64 EP

50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.22 EP
50% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 74, worth -4.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model