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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 24

Atlanta Falcons 7 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(4:50) 3-M.Bryant 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.63 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 24, worth -0.91 EP
KICK +1.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 34, worth -1.74 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model