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Atlanta Falcons

2-0 HC Dan Quinn
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New York Giants

0-2 HC Tom Coughlin
Sunday 2015-09-20 · 13:00 ET MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread 2.0 O/U 49.5

Win Probability

ATL
40.7%
NYG
59.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • ATL offense: -0.065 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • Eli Manning (NYG): -0.001 EPA/dropback in prior starts

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

ATL 19 12–26
–
NYG 24 17–31
Projected margin: NYG by 5 Projected total: 43

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 2

ATL

Malliciah Goodman DE Out Elbow
Devin Hester WR Out Toe
Brooks Reed LB Out Groin
Adrian Clayborn DE Probable Thumb
Julio Jones WR Probable Hamstring
Jake Matthews T Probable Back
William Moore S Probable Illness
O'Brien Schofield DE Probable Hip

NYG

Victor Cruz WR Out Calf
Daniel Fells TE Out Foot
Markus Kuhn DT Out Knee
Owamagbe Odighizuwa DE Out Foot
Jon Beason LB Doubtful Knee
Uani 'Unga LB Probable Knee
Ereck Flowers T Probable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 24
–
NYG 20

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 00:42 TD ATL (:42) 26-T.Coleman left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 6 – NYG 0
  • Q2 10:36 FG NYG (10:36) 3-J.Brown 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing. ATL 7 – NYG 3
  • Q2 04:50 FG ATL (4:50) 3-M.Bryant 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL 10 – NYG 3
  • Q2 03:34 TD NYG (3:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 13-O.Beckham Jr. for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 10 – NYG 9
  • Q2 00:07 FG NYG (:07) 3-J.Brown 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing. ATL 10 – NYG 13
  • Q3 11:00 TD NYG (11:00) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short middle to 84-L.Donnell for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on ATL-71-K.Biermann, Illegal Use of Hands, declined. ATL 10 – NYG 19
  • Q4 12:46 TD ATL (12:46) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 85-L.Hankerson for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 16 – NYG 20
  • Q4 01:20 TD ATL (1:20) 24-D.Freeman left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. ATL 23 – NYG 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 6 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 36%

    (9:39) 5-M.Bosher punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NYG 4th & 15 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (5:00) 9-B.Wing punts 47 yards to ATL 14, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYG 4th & 7 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 89%

    (10:36) 3-J.Brown 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ATL 4th & 7 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 84%

    (4:50) 3-M.Bryant 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ATL 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (2:42) 5-M.Bosher punts 54 yards to NYG 20, Center-47-J.Harris. 17-D.Harris to NYG 25 for 5 yards (14-E.Weems, 71-K.Biermann).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYG 4th & 7 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 23%

    (1:32) 9-B.Wing punts 39 yards to ATL 11, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ATL 4th & 8 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (1:10) 5-M.Bosher punts 59 yards to NYG 28, Center-47-J.Harris. 17-D.Harris to NYG 34 for 6 yards (20-P.Adams). PENALTY on ATL-36-K.Ishmael, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 34.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 ATL 4th & 7 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (8:56) 5-M.Bosher punts 69 yards to NYG 8, Center-47-J.Harris. 17-D.Harris to NYG 34 for 26 yards (54-N.Stupar).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYG 4th & 3 at the 39
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 50%

    (8:12) 9-B.Wing punts 37 yards to ATL 2, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-17-D.Harris.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 ATL 4th & 4 at the 54 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 46%

    (4:38) 5-M.Bosher punts 47 yards to NYG 7, Center-47-J.Harris. 17-D.Harris to NYG 36 for 29 yards (5-M.Bosher).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYG 4th & 7 at the 61 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (3:23) 9-B.Wing punts 41 yards to ATL 20, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 14-E.Weems to ATL 30 for 10 yards (17-D.Harris, 59-D.Kennard).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYG 4th & 10 at the 50 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 23%

    (:44) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete deep left to 15-P.Parker (52-J.Durant).

    See the full breakdown →