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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 74

Atlanta Falcons 10 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(2:42) 5-M.Bosher punts 54 yards to NYG 20, Center-47-J.Harris. 17-D.Harris to NYG 25 for 5 yards (14-E.Weems, 71-K.Biermann).

The Three Options

GO -1.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.23 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 74, worth -4.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.58 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 32, worth -1.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model