Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 87

Atlanta Falcons 10 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(1:10) 5-M.Bosher punts 59 yards to NYG 28, Center-47-J.Harris. 17-D.Harris to NYG 34 for 6 yards (20-P.Adams). PENALTY on ATL-36-K.Ishmael, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 34.

The Three Options

GO -2.88 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.60 EP
61% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 87, worth -5.07 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model