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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 77

Atlanta Falcons 10 – New York Giants 20

What Actually Happened

(8:56) 5-M.Bosher punts 69 yards to NYG 8, Center-47-J.Harris. 17-D.Harris to NYG 34 for 26 yards (54-N.Stupar).

The Three Options

GO -2.31 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.21 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 77, worth -4.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 34, worth -1.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model