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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 44

Atlanta Falcons 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(9:39) 5-M.Bosher punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.20 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 44, worth -2.65 EP
KICK -1.28 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 12, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model