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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 50

New York Giants 20 – Atlanta Falcons 24

What Actually Happened

(:44) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete deep left to 15-P.Parker (52-J.Durant).

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
What Happened
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +0.72 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 50, worth -1.04 EP
KICK -0.18 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.74 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 14, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.34 EP