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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 8 at the 30

Las Vegas Raiders 20 – Baltimore Ravens 20

What Actually Happened

(8:48) 11-S.Janikowski 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

The Three Options

GO +0.39 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.67 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30, worth -1.21 EP
KICK +1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 40, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model