BAL @ OAK — 4th & Data

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HC John Harbaugh

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HC Jack Del Rio

Sunday 2015-09-20 · 16:05 O.co Coliseum, Oakland US ☀️ Clear Spread -6.0 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

BAL

30.3%

OAK

69.7%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

BAL offense: -0.375 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
Joe Flacco (BAL): -0.517 EPA/dropback in prior starts
LV defense: +0.237 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
LV offense: -0.182 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
BAL defense: -0.275 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
Derek Carr (LV) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

BAL 22

–

OAK 25

Projected margin: OAK by 3 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

BAL

Eugene Monroe T Out Concussion

Breshad Perriman WR Out Knee

Rashaan Melvin CB Questionable Thigh

Darren Waller WR Questionable Ankle

Chris Canty DE Probable Not Injury Related

Justin Forsett RB Probable Shoulder

Timmy Jernigan DT Probable Knee

Daryl Smith LB Probable Not Injury Related

Lorenzo Taliaferro RB Probable Knee

OAK

Justin Ellis DT Out Ankle

Benson Mayowa DE Out Knee

Jamize Olawale RB Out Ankle

Charles Woodson S Questionable Shoulder

Derek Carr QB Probable right Hand

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 33

–

OAK 37

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 23 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 12:59 TD LV (12:59) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 89-A.Cooper for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN [57-C.Mosley]. BAL 0 – OAK 6
Q1 11:48 FG LV (11:48) 11-S.Janikowski 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King. BAL 0 – OAK 10
Q1 07:45 FG BAL (7:45) 9-J.Tucker 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 3 – OAK 10
Q1 00:02 TD BAL (:02) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short middle to 80-C.Gillmore for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV-25-D.Hayden was injured during the play. BAL 9 – OAK 10
Q2 12:57 TD LV (12:57) 69-K.Barnes reported in as eligible. 28-L.Murray right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 10 – OAK 16
Q2 07:51 TD BAL (7:51) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short middle to 80-C.Gillmore for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 16 – OAK 17
Q2 02:05 FG LV (2:05) 11-S.Janikowski 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King. BAL 17 – OAK 20
Q2 00:03 FG BAL (:03) 9-J.Tucker 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 20 – OAK 20
Q3 08:48 FG LV (8:48) 11-S.Janikowski 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King. BAL 20 – OAK 23
Q3 02:21 TD LV (2:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 15-M.Crabtree for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on BAL-21-L.Webb, Defensive Holding, declined. BAL 20 – OAK 29
Q4 13:42 FG BAL (13:42) 9-J.Tucker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 23 – OAK 30
Q4 07:08 TD BAL (7:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 34-L.Taliaferro up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 29 – OAK 30
Q4 02:13 FG BAL (2:13) 9-J.Tucker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. PENALTY on LV-90-D.Williams, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs. BAL 33 – OAK 30
Q4 00:30 TD LV (:30) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 10-S.Roberts for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 33 – OAK 36

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 LV 4th & 5 at the 5

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31% p(FG) 98%

(11:48) 11-S.Janikowski 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.
Q1 BAL 4th & 4 at the 4

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%

(7:45) 9-J.Tucker 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.
Q1 LV 4th & 5 at the 48

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36% p(FG) 28%

(3:06) 7-M.King punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-59-J.Condo, Touchback.
Q2 BAL 4th & 1 at the 71

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 68%

(10:57) 29-J.Forsett left end pushed ob at BAL 30 for 1 yard (25-D.Hayden).
Q2 LV 4th & 6 at the 28

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31% p(FG) 77%

(2:05) 11-S.Janikowski 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.
Q3 BAL 4th & 6 at the 76

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 39%

(13:08) 4-S.Koch punts 46 yards to LV 30, Center-46-M.Cox. 38-T.Carrie pushed ob at BAL 45 for 25 yards (4-S.Koch). PENALTY on LV-51-B.Heeney, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at LV 35.
Q3 LV 4th & 8 at the 30

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 27% p(FG) 73%

(8:48) 11-S.Janikowski 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.
Q3 BAL 4th & 3 at the 62

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 49%

(6:45) 4-S.Koch punts 46 yards to LV 16, Center-46-M.Cox. 38-T.Carrie to LV 16 for no gain (12-D.Waller).
Q4 BAL 4th & 5 at the 19

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35% p(FG) 90%

(13:42) 9-J.Tucker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.
Q4 LV 4th & 7 at the 77

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34%

(12:45) 7-M.King punts 70 yards to BAL 7, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-22-T.Jones.
Q4 BAL 4th & 1 at the 15

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 61% p(FG) 93%

(8:22) 5-J.Flacco up the middle to LV 13 for 2 yards (Team).
Q4 BAL 4th & 8 at the 13 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 27% p(FG) 94%

(2:13) 9-J.Tucker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. PENALTY on LV-90-D.Williams, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs.