4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 62

Baltimore Ravens 20 – Las Vegas Raiders 23

What Actually Happened

(6:45) 4-S.Koch punts 46 yards to LV 16, Center-46-M.Cox. 38-T.Carrie to LV 16 for no gain (12-D.Waller).

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.90 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 62, worth -3.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 21, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model